Our first round of heavy rain will occur on Thursday and Thursday night, possibly lasting into Friday.  During this time frame, rainfall totals should average 1 to 2 inches across the northern two or three rows of counties.  Most other sections of the state should pick up 2 to 3 inches of rain, and there will probably be some locally heavier amounts.

The aforementioned rain will occur as a cold front makes its way slowly through the state.  Thursday afternoon and evening will also bring a threat of some severe weather as the front moves through.  Best chances for severe weather will be in west central, central, southwest, and south central Arkansas.  Damaging winds and large hail will be possible.  A big outbreak of severe weather is not expected, but we could see at least a few reports of severe weather.

Although some rain will likely linger in the state from Friday night into Saturday, amounts in this time frame should be quite a bit less.

Then, the next round of heavy rain is likely from Saturday night into Sunday night, with totals generally in the 2 to 4 inch range.

With the rainfall amounts that we are forecasting, I would expect some flash flood watches and warnings to become necessary before this weather system finally exits the state.

I will issue the next message around 10:30 AM Thursday.

John Robinson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock
Office Web site:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk

Thursday, February 9, 2012, 9:45 AM

Rain will move into western Arkansas tonight and sweep across the rest of the state on Friday.  Thunder is unlikely.  Most rainfall amounts will range between 1/10 and 1/3 inch.  Chances are that temperatures in northern Arkansas will be above freezing, though not by much in some places, when the rain arrives.  However, it's not totally out of the question that there could be some brief, small pockets of light freezing rain.

A greater winter weather threat appears to be shaping up for about the northern half of the state late Sunday night into Monday morning.  There will be a race between cold air trying to move out and precipitation trying to move in.  At this point, it does appear that some precipitation will arrive before all of the cold air can exit.  For northern Arkansas, the precipitation would likely take the form of a freezing rain/sleet/snow mix, while the central part of the state would see a freezing rain/sleet mix.  At this point, amounts look to be small enough such that ice storm criteria (1/4 inch of ice) would not be met.  Still, if the icy precipitation does take place, there would be enough of it to cause some driving problems.  Warming temperatures on Monday would turn all the precipitation to rain.  The usual disclaimer applies:  Forecasting winter weather this far in advance is difficult.  The forecast will probably change somewhat before the precipitation arrives, so please keep up with the forecasts over the weekend.

I will issue the next message early Friday afternoon.

John Robinson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock
Office Web site:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk